Many MTG Player's ask: Is the reserved list a load of bull?

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Post by robertleva » 3 years ago

Krishnath wrote:
3 years ago
Social justice isn't needed to create the pressure needed to remove the "official reprint policy". All we need is enough videos by different authors and enough discussion threads on the subject on a variety of platforms.

The issue isn't convincing the designers of the game, but corporate. The designers are already on the side of it getting removed, and if corporate realizes that it is basically risk free and the majority of players are for its abolishment, it will get removed.
I wish you were right but I suspect that I am. It would take some really bad optics to force their hand on this, and I don't think a bunch of well-thought-out arguments and logic is going to be enough. I'd be happy to be wrong here but I predict no change whatsoever.
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Post by Krishnath » 3 years ago

robertleva wrote:
3 years ago
Krishnath wrote:
3 years ago
Social justice isn't needed to create the pressure needed to remove the "official reprint policy". All we need is enough videos by different authors and enough discussion threads on the subject on a variety of platforms.

The issue isn't convincing the designers of the game, but corporate. The designers are already on the side of it getting removed, and if corporate realizes that it is basically risk free and the majority of players are for its abolishment, it will get removed.
I wish you were right but I suspect that I am. It would take some really bad optics to force their hand on this, and I don't think a bunch of well-thought-out arguments and logic is going to be enough. I'd be happy to be wrong here but I predict no change whatsoever.
Nah, the bottom line for WotC, or rather Hasbro, is value vs. risk. If the value is high and the risk is low, then it will happen. And the risk is so really friggin' low that it is essentially zero, all that needs to happen is for corporate to realize this and that the value is high. It is kinda cynical to put into words, but that is basically how corporations work, how risky is something compared to how much it can potentially earn the company. If the risk is low but the value is high, then the corporation will do it if they are aware of the risk/profit ratio.

Getting rid of the reserved list will help the players, it will help the designers, and *it will help corporates bottom line*.
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Post by user_938036 » 3 years ago

Krishnath wrote:
3 years ago

Nah, the bottom line for WotC, or rather Hasbro, is value vs. risk. If the value is high and the risk is low, then it will happen. And the risk is so really friggin' low that it is essentially zero, all that needs to happen is for corporate to realize this and that the value is high. It is kinda cynical to put into words, but that is basically how corporations work, how risky is something compared to how much it can potentially earn the company. If the risk is low but the value is high, then the corporation will do it if they are aware of the risk/profit ratio.

Getting rid of the reserved list will help the players, it will help the designers, and *it will help corporates bottom line*.
This is exactly right. The problem is that the reality of the Risk Vs Reward is that Risk = minuscule and Reward = none. Unless this changes there will be no change. There is no value in removing the reserved list because they are already overwhelmed with valuable cards to reprint in moderate amounts.

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Post by robertleva » 3 years ago

That assumes they understand that giving their customers what they want translates into a nice bottom line. We have a lot of years of history that shows they have no idea at all that this is the case, or they have no idea at all what their customers want. The fact they are running two digital products that compete against one another for the very same customers illustrates this. They could make a lot of money by combining the projects. Arena players get more things to do with their cards including ranked play. MTGO gets a fancy new interface. WOTC rakes in the cash. It's an obvious win win.

But this is WOTC. They have plenty of history of doing nothing and sitting on their asses until absolutely forced to by something powerful like social mob desires. I predict they will continue this pattern.
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Post by Krishnath » 3 years ago

user_938036 wrote:
3 years ago
his is exactly right. The problem is that the reality of the Risk Vs Reward is that Risk = minuscule and Reward = none. Unless this changes there will be no change. There is no value in removing the reserved list because they are already overwhelmed with valuable cards to reprint in moderate amounts.
But the thing is, the potential reward is huge for corporate. If, as I mentioned earlier, they got rid of the list tomorrow (via a press release stating such), and made a master style set a year from now, selling the boosters for 15 dollars each, and containing just the OG duals from the list, it would literally become the best selling masters set they have made until that point. They could make a set, put in the power nine as "masterpieces", and people would be buying tons of the set for even just a tiny chance of opening a Lotus or Moxen. WotC would literally be printing money at that point. There is literally zero risk for them to do so, and everything to gain.
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Post by user_938036 » 3 years ago

robertleva wrote:
3 years ago
The fact they are running two digital products that compete against one another for the very same customers illustrates this. They could make a lot of money by combining the projects. Arena players get more things to do with their cards including ranked play. MTGO gets a fancy new interface. WOTC rakes in the cash. It's an obvious win win.
This is utter nonsense. This thought that it would be easy or even possible to combine Arena with MTGO is ridiculous. They can't upgrade MTGO to look and function like Arena and it will take years to program the card base into Arena. The reason they are running competing digital projects is because they are competing in one avenue in which they don't actually care about competition. Arena only competes against MTGO in what Arena can do which they are fine with because Arena is objectively better and they want people on Arena. When Arena has the card base of MTGO 15+ years from now they could close MTGO to stop the competition but until then its foolish to believe they should do anything other than run both.

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Post by robertleva » 3 years ago

user_938036 wrote:
3 years ago
robertleva wrote:
3 years ago
The fact they are running two digital products that compete against one another for the very same customers illustrates this. They could make a lot of money by combining the projects. Arena players get more things to do with their cards including ranked play. MTGO gets a fancy new interface. WOTC rakes in the cash. It's an obvious win win.
This is utter nonsense. This thought that it would be easy or even possible to combine Arena with MTGO is ridiculous. They can't upgrade MTGO to look and function like Arena and it will take years to program the card base into Arena. The reason they are running competing digital projects is because they are competing in one avenue in which they don't actually care about competition. Arena only competes against MTGO in what Arena can do which they are fine with because Arena is objectively better and they want people on Arena. When Arena has the card base of MTGO 15+ years from now they could close MTGO to stop the competition but until then its foolish to believe they should do anything other than run both.
Sorry but your timeline and estimations on what is or isn't possible in 2020, well are just that, just your opinions. You have no idea how long it would take to program the card base into Arena, you don't work on either platform. Clearly they have a way to add sets into arena at least as fast as they can make them in paper currently. How hard would it be to hire a team dedicated to adding 1 old set for each new set they add?

That's all simple deduction, in reality it's probably a LOT easier if you have $$ and a motivated company.

So yeah, color me unconvinced that WOTC is secretly really good at making decisions and they are in actuality hamstrung by some mysterious forces that prevent them from coding properly. These forces some how don't affect any other software developers mind you, only WOTC's software department. Not buying it.
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Post by user_938036 » 3 years ago

robertleva wrote:
3 years ago
That's all simple deduction, in reality it's probably a LOT easier if you have $$ and a motivated company.

So yeah, color me unconvinced that WOTC is secretly really good at making decisions and they are in actuality hamstrung by some mysterious forces that prevent them from coding properly. These forces some how don't affect any other software developers mind you, only WOTC's software department. Not buying it.
Can you point to a company that runs an online card game and adds cards faster than Wizards? Can you point to any game company that adds updates at a significantly faster rate to their digital games than Wizards? Obviously you believe that Wizards current rate of keeping Arena up to date with Standard as well as all supplemental products they've added is fairly easy and even slow if you believe it's a simple matter of hiring a few extra people to add the entire backlog of magic cards.

If your point is instead, that Wizards could burn an absurd amount of $$ to accomplish anything then I'll agree. But then I'll call bull on your original point that they could make lots of money by doing such. Which gets us back to square one of me proclaiming "They could make a lot of money by combining the projects." as utter nonsense.

Also, I don't believe they are "secretly really good at making decisions" only that the idea that they could "easily" or even "profitably" merge MTGO and Arena is bull.

You have the right to move the goalpost again but I'll be here waiting for you to return.

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Post by robertleva » 3 years ago

user_938036 wrote:
3 years ago
Can you point to any game company that adds updates at a significantly faster rate to their digital games than Wizards?
Like, are you seriously asking this? MTGO hasn't gotten a significant update since they changed from the VERY old client, how long ago 7-8 years now? In fact I think they still consider this new MTGO client to be considered a beta, at least I never saw an official policy change regarding it's status. WOTC should be EMBARRASSED by their mtgo support.

WOTC, the management body, is unworthy of the amazing game they steward. Their communication with the public is non-existent. Their vision for their game, the formats within it, and the company plans for the future are anyone's guess. They can't be bothered to talk to us outside of a few paragraphs that accompany some important ban.

They have a system that makes enough money to keep their bonuses at whatever level makes them not give too much of a %$#% about their customer base's desires. In nature, growth only comes though discomfort. I feel like WOTC will resist change until they are absolutely forced to do otherwise. I hate the social mob, but if some good can come out of them so be it. Sick them on the RL and see what happens.

Short of that, ain't nuttin changin'.
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Post by BeneTleilax » 3 years ago

If you want to go on about MTGO, make your own thread. This is about the paper Reserve List.

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Post by user_938036 » 3 years ago

robertleva wrote:
3 years ago
user_938036 wrote:
3 years ago
Can you point to any game company that adds updates at a significantly faster rate to their digital games than Wizards?
Like, are you seriously asking this?
Yes, yes I am. Because not once did I specify MTGO nor did I say a major interface update. I understand you don't like Wizards because they have made a lot of bad decisions but if all you are going to engage me with is "I don't like Wizards so everyone saying I'm wrong must be wrong" then this isn't going anywhere. I called out a specific complaint levied as "utter nonsense" your response has been a combination of shifting the goal and then ignoring the question in favor of other bad things they've done.

If you want me to agree that wizards makes poor decisions I'll agree to that. I'll even agree that MTGO is a raging dumpster fire. If you have nothing to actually add beyond that lets just walk away.

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Post by toctheyounger » 3 years ago

BeneTleilax wrote:
3 years ago
If you want to go on about MTGO, make your own thread. This is about the paper Reserve List.
QFT. All discussion outside of this is apropos of nothing.
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Post by BeneTleilax » 3 years ago

The price hikes and buyouts seem to have gutted the last real bulwark of the list even as they have made it all the more odious. Not too long ago, there was a dedicated contingent of RL grognards who, while a minority, tended to be well-entrenched in the community. Looking over this thread, I've yet to see anyone actually defend the list. I have a feeling that in the last few years, a good number of the grognard faction quietly sold their coveted staples to a dwindling number of speculators, who are largely detached from the community and the game itself.

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Post by motleyslayer » 3 years ago

this thread is getting quite heated. Please refrain from flaming or trolling other users and try and keep it as close to the original topic as possible. I understand that MTGO and Arena relate to it but let's not talk about the quality of the programs in this thread

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Post by blkdemonight » 3 years ago

I honestly believe that the reserve list serves no purpose except guide the design of digital offerings while allowing creators of proxies or fakes take in the dough for paper. Pretty sure there's a third party site that makes it easy for anyone to print their own home made proxies too.

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Post by robertleva » 3 years ago

My point is WOTC is garbage at handling their IP. The RL and MTGO are just two examples. They won't be changing the RL. That is all.
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Post by toctheyounger » 3 years ago

robertleva wrote:
3 years ago
They won't be changing the RL. That is all.
This is pretty much the case for the foreseeable future. Ultimately I think they realise they can drop the RL but will make the decision to do so when most financially advantageous. A cynical view, but probably accurate.

As far as court cases go though if/when the time does happen, I doubt very highly they would hold much water. End of the day there's a few people that stand to possibly lose some money (which they would have to prove), and they're up against a corporation that can afford to drag out the case and bankrupt anyone who tries just in legal expenses. That's assuming the case doesn't get thrown out, because why have the investors not challenged any of the past RL amendments? It's a precarious case they'd be making, and it's pretty doubtful it would be successful.

As far as encouraging WotC to make the change, well, I don't quite think it requires social mob tactics per se, videos like the above get more than enough traffic through followers and subscribers, retweets, shares, and such like for WotC to be well aware that the MtG zeitgeist is generally clamouring for change. The fact is they know they hold all the cards (pun fully intended) and can make that change when they choose to do so, and not a minute sooner.
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Post by Krishnath » 3 years ago

toctheyounger wrote:
3 years ago
This is pretty much the case for the foreseeable future. Ultimately I think they realise they can drop the RL but will make the decision to do so when most financially advantageous. A cynical view, but probably accurate.
But that is just it, it is incredibly financially advantageous for them to drop it and reprint cards from it. As I mentioned earlier, if they dropped it and released a masters set a year later with the only reprints from it being the duals (at rare), and selling the boosters for 15 bucks each, they would literally be printing money. The set would sell out before it was even released.
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Post by toctheyounger » 3 years ago

Krishnath wrote:
3 years ago
toctheyounger wrote:
3 years ago
This is pretty much the case for the foreseeable future. Ultimately I think they realise they can drop the RL but will make the decision to do so when most financially advantageous. A cynical view, but probably accurate.
But that is just it, it is incredibly financially advantageous for them to drop it and reprint cards from it. As I mentioned earlier, if they dropped it and released a masters set a year later with the only reprints from it being the duals (at rare), and selling the boosters for 15 bucks each, they would literally be printing money. The set would sell out before it was even released.
I guess it's just a case of the corporate/financial side of the business just not understanding the secondary market or the game itself? I generally agree, it'd probably be the first masters set I'd actually spring for sealed product of, even though chances are they mix the duals in with dross rares.
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Post by Mookie » 3 years ago

Back-of-the-napkin math: from WotC's perspective, suppose there are three possible outcomes for abolishing the Reserve List: no effect (no legal issues whatsoever, no one cares), small loss (ex: an unsuccessful legal suit), or big loss (ex: successful legal suit, large damages). Based only on that, there is no incentive to get rid of the Reserve List, even if the chances of a loss are small - very simply, if they abolish it and do nothing else, they won't make any money.

Things get more interesting when you take into account their newfound ability to reprint Reserve List cards. Suppose they decide to develop a new set, Reserve Masters. This is an action that also isn't totally free - it would be taking the resources required to develop a different set (let's call it 'Normal Masters'). Obviously, it likely wouldn't be the case that the entire Reserve List would be reprinted in Reserve Masters - they would probably spread it out among multiple sets. Still though, at this point, the question becomes 'is the expected revenue earned from Reserve Masters greater than the expected revenue from Normal Masters, and is it greater by amount larger than our expected losses?' And without knowing WotC's actual financial modeling, that is a nontrivial question to answer.

However, I honestly wouldn't be that surprised if the increase in earnings from RM over NM isn't actually that large. If we consider the simplest case - for example, swapping out a half-cycle of fetchlands in the set for a half-cycle of original duals - I have no idea how much more product they would move. They could also print more exotic cards like Library of Alexandria or The Abyss... but would they move more product than another reprint of Mana Crypt or Mana Drain? Again, I have no idea.

The original duals would definitely move product, but the vast majority of Reserve List cards are only expensive due to rarity, and the values of their reprints would be substantially lower compared to a more in-demand/widely used card like Mana Drain - see the relative price of Imperial Recruiter. So, it's very possible that people wouldn't actually buy product for a chance at opening Library of Alexandria. Being banned in EDH would be a big hit on the value of that reprint in particular, with a similar story for Black Lotus / the Power 9 (minus Timetwister, which is sort of niche anyway).

Anyway, I'm strongly in favor of getting rid of the Reserve List... but I can also absolutely understand why WotC may not feel the need to, if they feel like they already have enough valuable reprints to move sets. If they somehow deplete that set of valuable cards (which seems unlikely, if only because new expensive cards get printed every set), then cracking open the List becomes a lot more attractive, but that could potentially take years to happen.

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Post by Krishnath » 3 years ago

toctheyounger wrote:
3 years ago
Krishnath wrote:
3 years ago
toctheyounger wrote:
3 years ago
This is pretty much the case for the foreseeable future. Ultimately I think they realise they can drop the RL but will make the decision to do so when most financially advantageous. A cynical view, but probably accurate.
But that is just it, it is incredibly financially advantageous for them to drop it and reprint cards from it. As I mentioned earlier, if they dropped it and released a masters set a year later with the only reprints from it being the duals (at rare), and selling the boosters for 15 bucks each, they would literally be printing money. The set would sell out before it was even released.
I guess it's just a case of the corporate/financial side of the business just not understanding the secondary market or the game itself? I generally agree, it'd probably be the first masters set I'd actually spring for sealed product of, even though chances are they mix the duals in with dross rares.
WotC has stated multiple times that they do not give a wit about the secondary market. They do not make money from it, so they do not care. If corporate realizes that they have nothing to lose by getting rid of "The official reprint policy" and everything to win, it *is* gone.
Mookie wrote:
3 years ago
Back-of-the-napkin math: from WotC's perspective, suppose there are three possible outcomes for abolishing the Reserve List: no effect (no legal issues whatsoever, no one cares), small loss (ex: an unsuccessful legal suit), or big loss (ex: successful legal suit, large damages). Based only on that, there is no incentive to get rid of the Reserve List, even if the chances of a loss are small - very simply, if they abolish it and do nothing else, they won't make any money.

Things get more interesting when you take into account their newfound ability to reprint Reserve List cards. Suppose they decide to develop a new set, Reserve Masters. This is an action that also isn't totally free - it would be taking the resources required to develop a different set (let's call it 'Normal Masters'). Obviously, it likely wouldn't be the case that the entire Reserve List would be reprinted in Reserve Masters - they would probably spread it out among multiple sets. Still though, at this point, the question becomes 'is the expected revenue earned from Reserve Masters greater than the expected revenue from Normal Masters, and is it greater by amount larger than our expected losses?' And without knowing WotC's actual financial modeling, that is a nontrivial question to answer.

However, I honestly wouldn't be that surprised if the increase in earnings from RM over NM isn't actually that large. If we consider the simplest case - for example, swapping out a half-cycle of fetchlands in the set for a half-cycle of original duals - I have no idea how much more product they would move. They could also print more exotic cards like Library of Alexandria or The Abyss... but would they move more product than another reprint of Mana Crypt or Mana Drain? Again, I have no idea.

The original duals would definitely move product, but the vast majority of Reserve List cards are only expensive due to rarity, and the values of their reprints would be substantially lower compared to a more in-demand/widely used card like Mana Drain - see the relative price of Imperial Recruiter. So, it's very possible that people wouldn't actually buy product for a chance at opening Library of Alexandria (being banned in EDH would be a big hit on the value of that reprint in particular).

Anyway, I'm strongly in favor of getting rid of the Reserve List... but I can also absolutely understand why WotC may not feel the need to, if they feel like they already have enough valuable reprints to move sets. If they somehow deplete that set of valuable cards (which seems unlikely, if only because new expensive cards get printed every set), then cracking open the List becomes a lot more attractive, but that could potentially take years to happen.
Scenario three will not happen due to prior art. Nobody challenged WotC in court any of the times they made changes to "the official reprint policy", as such a lawsuit literally doesn't have a leg to stand on and would fail in court, if it even went that far.

There is literally no version of this where WotC loses money on getting rid of it. They literally can *not* lose.
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Post by toctheyounger » 3 years ago

Krishnath wrote:
3 years ago
There is literally no version of this where WotC loses money on getting rid of it. They literally can *not* lose.
I don't generally disagree, I think from their perspective it's a case of how much more money they can make from the extra effort of RL abolition/reprinting, and that's not an easy answer to come up with. I'd say if marketed right there's the possibility it would be one of the most successful releases of all time, but it really does depend.

I think they'd be disappointed with return if they went for the box topper/expedition model, or with the double masters model. The sort of people that want these predominantly would already have duals etc, you're not pulling any extra revenue in from people who wouldn't already spend that money. There's possibly even a chance it sort of flops, because a collectors edition of duals/RL prints already exists, it's the Alpha printing.

If they decided to print in a reasonably priced masters like Modern Masters or Modern Horizons or what have you, you're basically printing your own money. That's marketing to people looking to optimise their decks and currently don't have RL prints nor can afford them, but would happily take a punt with some extra cash on getting in on the deal, and don't care if it's not foiled/expedition/ABUR.
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Post by robertleva » 3 years ago

Krishnath wrote:
3 years ago
There is literally no version of this where WotC loses money on getting rid of it. They literally can *not* lose.
So then either they know they can make money and CHOOSE to keep the policy for reasons beyond money, or they are so out of touch that is doesn't really matter what we want.

Either way, no RL changes.
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Post by Krishnath » 3 years ago

robertleva wrote:
3 years ago
So then either they know they can make money and CHOOSE to keep the policy for reasons beyond money, or they are so out of touch that is doesn't really matter what we want.
The problem is that it is Corporate that makes the decision, and corporate is always slow to change. This is true for all corporations, if something is already profitable they don't want to rock the boat, so to speak, even if rocking the boat would lead to even more money for them. It's stagnation.
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Post by user_938036 » 3 years ago

Krishnath wrote:
3 years ago
robertleva wrote:
3 years ago
So then either they know they can make money and CHOOSE to keep the policy for reasons beyond money, or they are so out of touch that is doesn't really matter what we want.
The problem is that it is Corporate that makes the decision, and corporate is always slow to change. This is true for all corporations, if something is already profitable they don't want to rock the boat, so to speak, even if rocking the boat would lead to even more money for them. It's stagnation.
The problem is its hard or even impossible to prove that getting rid of the reserved list will lead to an increase in profit.

If they removed it and put desired cards in a masters set and sold it at $15 how is that any different from what they are currently doing without removing the reserved list.

Its not like they have tons of masters sets unsold or that they would print and thus sell tons more without the reserved list. They already limit how much premium product they sell so the idea of "here are some cards that would sell packs" is met with "ok, throw it in the pile with the rest".

There is literally no incentive to abolish the reserved list.

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