[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 3 years ago

Greeksis wrote:
3 years ago
Lot's of reports that Conspicuous Snoop is the real deal.
It's a turn 3 kill. - That's a real upgrade, lol.
It "dies" to bolt?. - It does not lose two cards, like Twin did though, so it's better in that sense.
It's a strictly two card combo. - This means it's better than Devoted Druid.
It grinds really well and plays some really good cards. - Twin is supposed to be better at grinding, but I am not even sure. I think this deck may be grinding better than Twin.

Let's see if it's better or worse than Twin.

My instinct says is that it's slightly better than Twin or nearly at the same power level.
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Post by Mikefon » 3 years ago

Twin protected itself thanks to blue cards. Goblin is far from being close to twin level imho.

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Post by Aazadan » 3 years ago

Mikefon wrote:
3 years ago
Twin protected itself thanks to blue cards. Goblin is far from being close to twin level imho.
A red/black deck can protect itself with discard, which is also more proactive as you can cast it for less mana and then go for your combo. It's also still early for the deck, but it's likely quite good.

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Post by idSurge » 3 years ago

A turn 3 oops is generally enough to be competitive.

EDIT: Not to say, top tier, but Knightfall won me a lot of games off of the Turn 3 combo.
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Post by Mapccu » 3 years ago

unearth and collected company are both good cards for the snoop combo to play a longer game if they consider a splash. I think the deck may have legs.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 years ago

There are really only three paths for this new combo.

1) It's really good, becomes a top deck, and gets banned.
2) It's pretty good, but falls to meta shifts (hated out with removal, outclassed by some busted new print, etc).
3) It ends up being actively mediocre, living in mid/low tiers with a dozen other combo decks.

Either way, I'm sure as heck not buying in.

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Post by drmarkb » 3 years ago

It has a low cost for inclusion, and any goblin list can grind, and any midrange critter deck will be able to grind too, and it be uncountable with cavern, plus discard.
Only thing against it is that it is not green or blue.
It should be solid, may be too good, may not, but it certainly offers a lot......

I would not buy in because, duh, Modern is not a format to buy into, ever again more likely....

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 3 years ago

I'm considering buying in. The Snoops are $8 right now, which are pretty much guaranted to settle between $3.50-5 each. So it's not too much of a loss for me since I have all of the other cards. Some friends want it as well and mostly just need Aether Vial, which is not a bad card to own anyway.

It seems like a very solid card and a solid deck - the toughest part is how to build the deck since many Goblin cards have their own merits. I feel like you need to run 4 Goblin Ringleader as a backup value plan, but maybe I'm wrong?
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
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Post by cfusionpm » 3 years ago

drmarkb wrote:
3 years ago
It has a low cost for inclusion, and any goblin list can grind, and any midrange critter deck will be able to grind too, and it be uncountable with cavern, plus discard.
Only thing against it is that it is not green or blue.
It should be solid, may be too good, may not, but it certainly offers a lot......
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Post by Aazadan » 3 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
3 years ago
I'm considering buying in. The Snoops are $8 right now, which are pretty much guaranted to settle between $3.50-5 each. So it's not too much of a loss for me since I have all of the other cards. Some friends want it as well and mostly just need Aether Vial, which is not a bad card to own anyway.

It seems like a very solid card and a solid deck - the toughest part is how to build the deck since many Goblin cards have their own merits. I feel like you need to run 4 Goblin Ringleader as a backup value plan, but maybe I'm wrong?
I'm considering it as well. I'm think I lean towards combo game 1 and shift to aggro in game 2 or 3. Basically leverage goblins to play combo and aggro simultaneously like how twin played combo and midrange.

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Post by idSurge » 3 years ago

I think some of you are grossly underestimating the tempo impact that lead to Twin being an actual deck.

You could be playing a Turn 3 combo kill right now, with better supporting cards, if you really wanted to. Its called Knightfall, and it even plays Blue and Green.

This deck wont be good enough, unless for some reason literally all removal has been erased from the meta.

UGx is king.
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Post by ktkenshinx » 3 years ago

I'm really tired of bad Twin comparisons. This is true in this thread and definitely in the wider contentsphere (particularly Twitter, the land of sound bites). Not all two card combos are Twin. Not all creature combos are Twin. Twin was Twin because part of the combo had flash, because they could always represent the combo starting on T3 (gaining virtual tempo advantage against opponents who feared tapping out), and because Twin represented only 10ish slots in an otherwise totally functional control/tempo deck. Snoop Mogg dog doesn't do any of this well:

1. No flash. Must be played at sorcery speed over two turns. Even if you play it at sorcery speed for 5 mana., you still need to wait a turn because Snoop lacks haste. You can add dead draws like Vial to fix this, but now it's a 3 card combo.
2. No represented threat. Without flash, you must tap out on your turn to combo. There is no constant threat of losing. Even at 5 mana, without haste, there is still no threat.
3. Weaker alternate game plan. Mite and Exarch could actively contribute to a tempo Plan A. Snoop, Kiki, Harbinger, etc. are all very bad individually. This forces you to play a good shell with bad cards (something with AA), or a bad shell with contextually acceptable cards (Goblins).

Snoop may turn out to be a good strategy and a viable addition to Modern. It has a lot of hallmarks of a potentially decent deck. It's just not Twin.
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Post by cfusionpm » 3 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
3 years ago
I'm really tired of bad Twin comparisons. This is true in this thread and definitely in the wider contentsphere (particularly Twitter, the land of sound bites). Not all two card combos are Twin. Not all creature combos are Twin. Twin was Twin because part of the combo had flash, because they could always represent the combo starting on T3 (gaining virtual tempo advantage against opponents who feared tapping out), and because Twin represented only 10ish slots in an otherwise totally functional control/tempo deck. Snoop Mogg dog doesn't do any of this well:

1. No flash. Must be played at sorcery speed over two turns. Even if you play it at sorcery speed for 5 mana., you still need to wait a turn because Snoop lacks haste. You can add dead draws like Vial to fix this, but now it's a 3 card combo.
2. No represented threat. Without flash, you must tap out on your turn to combo. There is no constant threat of losing. Even at 5 mana, without haste, there is still no threat.
3. Weaker alternate game plan. Mite and Exarch could actively contribute to a tempo Plan A. Snoop, Kiki, Harbinger, etc. are all very bad individually. This forces you to play a good shell with bad cards (something with AA), or a bad shell with contextually acceptable cards (Goblins).

Snoop may turn out to be a good strategy and a viable addition to Modern. It has a lot of hallmarks of a potentially decent deck. It's just not Twin.
While I agree with pretty much everything here, I do take issue with the alternate game plan. While the Goblins are pretty bad, Pestermite dies to a light sneeze and attacking for 1 on the ground is real a tough way to win games. The opponent has to have nothing, or you have to have every possible answer. At which point you'd win with *any* threat.

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Post by Aazadan » 3 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
3 years ago
While I agree with pretty much everything here, I do take issue with the alternate game plan. While the Goblins are pretty bad, Pestermite dies to a light sneeze and attacking for 1 on the ground is real a tough way to win games. The opponent has to have nothing, or you have to have every possible answer. At which point you'd win with *any* threat.
The alternate for Twin was Bolt/Snap/Bolt for 8 damage out of nowhere, followed by the threat that if the opponent didn't leave two blockers back, they could face a Pestermite/Exarch for the Snap+tapper getting in for another 3 to 4 damage, and likely not making much progress against your life total (particularly if you had Exarch). Just one round from the Snap+tapper, and a double bolt would be good for 11-12 damage. Add in another 5 or so from lands, and that's 16 to 17... which is definitely in the danger range considering that Twin would at least at times run quite a few burn spells, like Forked Bolt, Electrolyze, and so on.

Goblins aren't Twin, but you can take a couple lessons from that deck when trying to put a decent Snoop list together.

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Post by idSurge » 3 years ago

Aazadan wrote:
3 years ago
cfusionpm wrote:
3 years ago
While I agree with pretty much everything here, I do take issue with the alternate game plan. While the Goblins are pretty bad, Pestermite dies to a light sneeze and attacking for 1 on the ground is real a tough way to win games. The opponent has to have nothing, or you have to have every possible answer. At which point you'd win with *any* threat.
The alternate for Twin was Bolt/Snap/Bolt for 8 damage out of nowhere, followed by the threat that if the opponent didn't leave two blockers back, they could face a Pestermite/Exarch for the Snap+tapper getting in for another 3 to 4 damage, and likely not making much progress against your life total (particularly if you had Exarch). Just one round from the Snap+tapper, and a double bolt would be good for 11-12 damage. Add in another 5 or so from lands, and that's 16 to 17... which is definitely in the danger range considering that Twin would at least at times run quite a few burn spells, like Forked Bolt, Electrolyze, and so on.

Goblins aren't Twin, but you can take a couple lessons from that deck when trying to put a decent Snoop list together.
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Post by th33l3x » 3 years ago

The one important thing Snoop has going for it is that its goldfish is a full turn faster than Twin and the goblin tribal shell runs several mainboard tutors/diggers for both combo pieces in Matron and Ringleader. Skirk Prospector also means it can potentially ramp into casting the combo at unlikely times.

I've watched some of Squachief's leagues with it, and the list seems powerful even though its just an unrefined first draft...

At any rate, it feels like goblin tribal is the best place for Snoop as opposed to a dedicated combo deck. Snoop is a great value engine outside the combo too (even though one could argue grinding power is the one thing Goblins didn't lack).

I have high hopes for this kind of build tbh.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 years ago

Aazadan wrote:
3 years ago
cfusionpm wrote:
3 years ago
While I agree with pretty much everything here, I do take issue with the alternate game plan. While the Goblins are pretty bad, Pestermite dies to a light sneeze and attacking for 1 on the ground is real a tough way to win games. The opponent has to have nothing, or you have to have every possible answer. At which point you'd win with *any* threat.
The alternate for Twin was Bolt/Snap/Bolt for 8 damage out of nowhere, followed by the threat that if the opponent didn't leave two blockers back, they could face a Pestermite/Exarch for the Snap+tapper getting in for another 3 to 4 damage, and likely not making much progress against your life total (particularly if you had Exarch). Just one round from the Snap+tapper, and a double bolt would be good for 11-12 damage. Add in another 5 or so from lands, and that's 16 to 17... which is definitely in the danger range considering that Twin would at least at times run quite a few burn spells, like Forked Bolt, Electrolyze, and so on.
I've been looking for a deck to do something exactly like this for four and a half years. :\

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Post by drmarkb » 3 years ago

You should not have it in Modern.
Modern should have combo cards, sure, but if you can't execute your combo it should have no plan B, the format has so many answer issues, answering a deck with a good combo and a decent plan B is stupidly hard, decks should be all in combo. A good plan B belongs in Legacy decks like Depths, Omni Tell, or Merfolk Shift, not Modern, which is why I don't want Twin or Pod back, their plan B was too good. Bolt snap bolt and electrolyse can get there...

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Post by Aazadan » 3 years ago

drmarkb wrote:
3 years ago
You should not have it in Modern.
Modern should have combo cards, sure, but if you can't execute your combo it should have no plan B, the format has so many answer issues, answering a deck with a good combo and a decent plan B is stupidly hard, decks should be all in combo. A good plan B belongs in Legacy decks like Depths, Omni Tell, or Merfolk Shift, not Modern, which is why I don't want Twin or Pod back, their plan B was too good. Bolt snap bolt and electrolyse can get there...
(Note: This has nothing to do with any specific deck, just general theory)

I disagree with this. There's nothing wrong with plan B's, however the combo shouldn't be both too fast, and too resilient. The way I see it, a combo is just another form of clock. If you can hit someone for 20 damage on turn 4 using your board state, or storm them out with Grapeshot on turn 4 it's really not all that different in terms of what was done to hit the opponent. They both require building a deck around doing so.

Historically, the most powerful decks, whether they're combo, midrange, aggro, control, or anything else tend to revolve around a singular concept: Disruption + Clock. Unless a deck is all in, which generally requires incredible speed or an incredible defense in order to be successful the above formula is what makes things work. Attacking from multiple angles with different types of clocks is a good thing. It makes interaction harder for sure, because disrupting one plan means the other plans are still viable, but that's not inherently bad because it eliminates the sideboard issue of silver bullets, especially in large formats.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 years ago

Four and a half years have pretty conclusively proven that Twin's "Plan B" is utter trash. The only reason it was remotely successful was because of the fear generated by the combo, which caused opponents to hold back and play cautiously. What, if anything, causes players to hold back and play cautiously today? It seems almost *always* that the most correct play is to jam your thing and hope they don't have an answer. Because if they don't, you win. And if they do, either you were going to lose the game anyway, or your deck is redundant enough to recover. *shrug*

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Post by Mapccu » 3 years ago

Jund goblins, splashing specifically for coco, allows you to combo at instant speed with potential zero pieces on the field or in hand. The deck is very capable of playing it's combo at instant speed. Aether Vial is fine if you want RB.
They have the best tribal go tall creatures (Goblin Piledriver or Foundry Street Denizen).

army in can (Goblin Rabblemaster or Legion Warboss).

Boggart Harbinger and Goblin Matron give you consistency.

lightning bolt or giblin grenade give you reach.

Skirk Prospector can take an embarrassing board to combo quickly.

Cavern and vial help fight counters

Sideboard options like Blood Moon, Goblin Cratermaker, Goblin Trashmaster, and others help you compete against more "fair" strats. Heck the mountain walk lords and blood moon set up a scary fast clock that many decks will struggle against.

Snoop is CA if you don't have the combo if he hangs around for a turn. Not hard to t3 vial in snoop just to rip 2-3 dudes off the top and smash face with a pair of denizens.

Goblin Ringleader is more CA in tribe, but we could probably do better (Lead the Stampede maybe?).

———————-

The deck checks all the boxes it needs to to succeed in theory. You have a 2 card t3 kill at sorcery speed or t4 at instant speed (vial/coco), reach, tutors, lords, wide/tall strats, CA and hate cards.

The tribe synergy is what imho will set the deck apart from other creature combos in the past (knight fall, 4c saheeli, devoted Druid). If I need to dump my hand and start swinging sideways, especially in g2/3 I can have a transformational sideboard to let me do just that all in tribe. None of our other creature decks have ever really been able to grind very well. They all force combo.

Snoop is 10 cards (4 snoop, 4 harbingers, 1 Kiki, 1 sling gang) at a minimum and without the combo I think the deck would run snoop for CA anyway. That's ~26-30 more slots depending on your curve for just normal goblin crap. I'm giving up 6 slots for a t3/4 kill in a tribe that already had a ton of tools to play a burn game.

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Post by cfusionpm » 3 years ago

Mapccu wrote:
3 years ago
Jund goblins, splashing specifically for coco, allows you to combo at instant speed with potential zero pieces on the field or in hand. The deck is very capable of playing it's combo at instant speed. Aether Vial is fine if you want RB.
They have the best tribal go tall creatures (Goblin Piledriver or Foundry Street Denizen).

army in can (Goblin Rabblemaster or Legion Warboss).

Boggart Harbinger and Goblin Matron give you consistency.

lightning bolt or goblin grenade give you reach.

Skirk Prospector can take an embarrassing board to combo quickly.

Cavern and vial help fight counters

Sideboard options like Blood Moon, Goblin Cratermaker, Goblin Trashmaster, and others help you compete against more "fair" strats. Heck the mountain walk lords and blood moon set up a scary fast clock that many decks will struggle against.

Snoop is CA if you don't have the combo if he hangs around for a turn. Not hard to t3 vial in snoop just to rip 2-3 dudes off the top and smash face with a pair of denizens.

Goblin Ringleader is more CA in tribe, but we could probably do better (Lead the Stampede maybe?).

———————-

The deck checks all the boxes it needs to to succeed in theory. You have a 2 card t3 kill at sorcery speed or t4 at instant speed (vial/coco), reach, tutors, lords, wide/tall strats, CA and hate cards.

The tribe synergy is what imho will set the deck apart from other creature combos in the past (knight fall, 4c saheeli, devoted Druid). If I need to dump my hand and start swinging sideways, especially in g2/3 I can have a transformational sideboard to let me do just that all in tribe. None of our other creature decks have ever really been able to grind very well. They all force combo.

Snoop is 10 cards (4 snoop, 4 harbingers, 1 Kiki, 1 sling gang) at a minimum and without the combo I think the deck would run snoop for CA anyway. That's ~26-30 more slots depending on your curve for just normal goblin crap. I'm giving up 6 slots for a t3/4 kill in a tribe that already had a ton of tools to play a burn game.
Don't forget to throw in Munitions Expert as a means to capitalize extra damage on a big board, or add to the combo kill, by not needing the attack step.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 3 years ago

I hope no one takes it personally when I refer to certain combos as the "Twin" kill. I personally like using such references. When I asked my friend what I should play at the Pioneer GP a while back, he said that UB Inverter is essentially "Twin" and Sultai Inverter was essentially Twin/Pod or Kiki Pod. I thought long and hard about those decks before going with Sultai Midrange because of Joel Larsson's success at the Pro Tour, but I think the references are fine.

But I also realize a lot of it is for shock value. If I say the Goblins deck may be like Kiki Mite for example, it doesn't have the same "feel." Who wants to run that? It sounds like a subpar deck, not a format defining deck that ended up getting banned. People want to believe that Goblins and other decks for that matter have that chance to be format defining or close to that. Everyone is looking for that next broken deck, especially with all of the mistakes that we now admit that WotC is doing in new sets.

Who wouldn't want to look for that? It is one of the more exciting times to me, to find that deck that makes you feel like you're playing Legacy against Modern (like when Eye of Ugin or Hogaak was around), although I'd argue that it felt like playing closer towards Vintage vs. Modern.
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Post by Mapccu » 3 years ago

I think the most exciting thing about the snoop combo is really pushing the deck to see how many game plans the shell can hold. I had a really fun 'dirty kitty' deck with the Gate to the Afterlife package and Hollow One in it that I played a few FNMs with. I think snoop combo can squeeze I to that deck. It lost Faithless Looting though which did a ton of heavy lifting for it.

IMHO the scariest decks that people seem to bemoan the loudest in the past 1-2 months are very removal lite.

Munitions Expert is solid to force through attacks, but can't dome players. Would be great if it could.

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Post by drmarkb » 3 years ago

Aazadan wrote:
3 years ago
drmarkb wrote:
3 years ago
You should not have it in Modern.
Modern should have combo cards, sure, but if you can't execute your combo it should have no plan B, the format has so many answer issues, answering a deck with a good combo and a decent plan B is stupidly hard, decks should be all in combo. A good plan B belongs in Legacy decks like Depths, Omni Tell, or Merfolk Shift, not Modern, which is why I don't want Twin or Pod back, their plan B was too good. Bolt snap bolt and electrolyse can get there...
(Note: This has nothing to do with any specific deck, just general theory)

I disagree with this. There's nothing wrong with plan B's, however the combo shouldn't be both too fast, and too resilient. The way I see it, a combo is just another form of clock. If you can hit someone for 20 damage on turn 4 using your board state, or storm them out with Grapeshot on turn 4 it's really not all that different in terms of what was done to hit the opponent. They both require building a deck around doing so.

Historically, the most powerful decks, whether they're combo, midrange, aggro, control, or anything else tend to revolve around a singular concept: Disruption + Clock. Unless a deck is all in, which generally requires incredible speed or an incredible defense in order to be successful the above formula is what makes things work. Attacking from multiple angles with different types of clocks is a good thing. It makes interaction harder for sure, because disrupting one plan means the other plans are still viable, but that's not inherently bad because it eliminates the sideboard issue of silver bullets, especially in large formats.
The problem in Modern is there are ways to defend against Bolt+ Snappy+ Bolt + nibble as plan B. Or grinding Pods. There are also ways to defend against respective combos, but there were were no decks to defend well against both the plan A and B, and certainly none to even come close to dealing with two such decks in a meta. The best and only deck at fighting that was BG-x, and even then it was not really up to fighting both those decks with both their plans. It could beat Twin, especially the combo part, but you could often get them with the plan B as cards like Thoughtseize and shocks did a chunk of the work. It did not really beat Pod. No hatebear build came close.

Silver bullets are good for the game, in my view, and would be good for Modern. A silver bullet is another name for an answer that hoses a deck over reliant on one thing, or a card that shuts someone out until they remove it- and a silver bullets for planeswalkers or creatures would be great for Modern- it would encourage diversification in decks and make games a lot less about landing Oko and Uro type cards, especially now that flexy BO1 cards are hitting shelves that can remove troublesome enchantments etc.

I loved playing against storm type decks- they could not hit me for 20 on turn 4 with their board state, but could grapeshot me T3/4 - if I could not interact. Fair enough. But if I could interact, they had to remove whatever I was doing- thalia, mindcensor, canonist etc. The game would go long. I don't even mind how a storm deck wins with a poor plan B- electromancer and a couple of bolts is acceptable very late on- turn 10-15 - because that is a poor plan B which I have no issues with, it looks like a poor plan B, it should win once in a while like that. I once lost in Legacy to two Humilitied Grisel/Emrakul 1/1s. It happens, it is what makes Magic "Magic", but it is not a reliable game plan, which was my issue with Pod and Twin. Plan B looked a lot like plan A- two angles of attack in a format where most non BG-x decks could barely stop one.

Maybe if there were more flexy hate permanents my views would change, but I feel that without better "NO" cards, Legacy is the place for decks that can attack efficiently on two fronts, and Modern is for attacking well on one front and reasonably inefficiently on a second or third.

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